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Know Gambling Odds and Probability: A Full Guide
Basics of Gambling Probability
Probability is how likely something will happen, from 0 (no chance) to 1 (will happen). In gambling, knowing this helps you make smart bets and figure out possible gains.
Three Major Odds Types Made Clear
Fractional Odds (like 5/1) show what you poker place might gain against your bet. Bet £1 at 5/1, win £5 plus your £1 back.
Decimal Odds (like 6.0) give the total you get back. A £1 bet at 6.0 gives you £6 total (£5 gain plus £1 bet).
Moneyline Odds
Moneyline odds have plus (+500) or minus (-200) signs. Positive means profit on a $100 bet, negative shows how much to bet to get $100 back.
Changing Odds Types
Switching odds types needs easy maths:
- Decimal to fractional: Minus 1 from decimal odds
- Moneyline to decimal: For plus odds, split by 100 and add 1
- Fractional to decimal: Split first by second number and add 1
Figuring Expected Value
Expected Value (EV) checks if a bet may pay off:
- Multiply chance of winning by possible gain
- Minus chance of losing times your bet
- Positive EV means a likely good bet
This helps bettors build smart bet plans and find good bets in various gambling scenes.
Basic Probability Ideas
Basics of Probability
Main Rules of Probability
Probability is the math chance something happens, shown as a number from 0 (no way) to 1 (for sure), or as a percent from 0% to 100%.
This idea is key to get stats and risk checks in areas.
Calculating Simple Probabilities
To find basic probability, divide the good outcomes by the all possible outcomes.
Like with a six-sided die, the chance of a certain number is 1/6, one choice out of six choices.
This rule is true for all probability math and stats work.
Key Ideas in Probability
Events on Their Own
Independent events have the same chance each time.
Think of tossing coins: five heads in a row doesn’t change the next toss – still a 50% chance of heads.
This doesn’t fit the well-known gambler’s mistake.
Events That Block Each Other
Mutually exclusive events mean if one happens, the other can’t.
Like, in one die roll, you can’t get both a 2 and a 3.
Getting these rules right is key for true chance checks and stats.
Types of Gambling Odds
Understanding Gambling Odds Types
Fractional odds, mainly in the UK and Ireland, show possible profit against your bet by simple fractions.
A 5/1 odds ratio means $5 gain for each $1 bet. Say, a $10 bet at 5/1 brings $50 gain plus the first bet back.
These odds are common in horse races and football bets.
Decimal odds, big in Europe and Australia, show all you get back including your first bet.
A decimal value of 6.0 means for every $1 bet, you get $6 back, which includes $5 gain and your $1 bet.
